NY Times Article on U.S. Green Leadership

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/15/magazine/15green.t.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=magazine

There's an excellent article by Thomas Friedman that I highly recommend. He does a very nice job of discussing the importance of U.S. leadership on green issues. I heartily agree with his observation that investing in green technologies could be a tremendous boost to U.S. standing in the world while improving our economic fortunes at the same time.

Auto Execs Singing The Same Ol' Tune

More of the same from Detroit/President Bush today (sigh).

http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/03/26/bush.automakers.ap/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

Does it make you wonder why airplane companies don't make the same argument about increasing fuel economy that car companies make? Does anyone see airplane manufacturers going out of business because they make airplanes more fuel efficient? Alan Mullaly seems to have forgotten what he learned at Boeing.

US Auto Execs Blowing It

An article on MarketWatch highlights the US auto industry's continued reluctance to embrace higher fuel mileage standards. I believe this is the most short-sighted, ill-conceived policy imaginable. Ford and GM are getting run over by Toyota, and in a few years Tesla will join Toyota in making the domestic auto manufacturers look painfully obsolete. Detroit is denying fundamental shifts in energy costs, battery technology, and consumer buying habits. I also think they are on the wrong side of the political debate. They are wasting their political capital when they need all they can get to survive. Whether you buy into GE's "ecomagination" campaign or not, GE clearly realizes the business opportunity in cleantech. Detroit keeps getting behind ethanol, which we all know is a band-aid, not a real solution. Wake up Detroit - before it's too late!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-auto-chiefs-cool-tougher/story.aspx?guid=%7B7617F8B0%2DE100%2D4685%2DA925%2D4FA19E3B0D0F%7D

Tesla Motors Blog

I read the Tesla Motors blog every week. This week's entry is very interesting, as it deals with how the mainstream media have been portraying EVs. I've posted a response, as I continue to be frustrated with the lack of information on the cost of Li-ion batteries. For EVs to reach the mainstream, battery cost has to come down. Will this happen through economies of scale? Who knows? Hopefully Tesla Motors will provide some answers.

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog1/index.php?p=53&js_enabled=1

Brief Thoughts on Cradle to Cradle

I've just finished reading Cradle to Cradle by William McDonough and Michael Braungart. This is a fascinating book that offers a very different approach to thinking about design and production of the things that all of us depend upon in modern society. The authors suggest new ways of designing and making products that are enviromentally and economically positive. I highly recommend the book.

Corn Hits Ten Year High

Corn hit almost $4.50 a bushel today. Soybeans are at their highest levels since 2004. Hey, but there's good news - the Fed says inflation isn't a problem. I went to an event where U.S. Bank economist John Mitchell spoke yesterday, and he called a chicken "corn that has been turned into meat." All the ethanol plants that are currently under construction are going to make trips to the grocery store more expensive. We need to keep trying to steer politicians away from ethanol and towards EV's powered by wind, solar, etc.

NY Times Article on Global Warming Economics

This is worth a read, but I wonder if there is something missing from the argument. Namely, how much more of the natural resources of the world should we continue to consume at the expense of future generations. I would argue that the moral imperative should outweigh the economic arguments. Furthermore, consumption does not have to linearly relate to economic growth. Sustainable business practices can yield economic growth and slow consumption patterns.

Here's the link:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/21/business/21leonhardt.html?ex=1329714000&en=19a3fa1a7bf060b5&ei=5089&partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss

Marketwatch Article on Corn-Based Ethanol

I'm still hoping that ethanol fever will die down soon. It seems that the mainstream press is picking up on the downside of ethanol. The stock market has taken a rather dim view of late. Pull up a chart of AVR, VSE, or PEIX if you want to see what the markets think of corn-based ethanol right now. Here's a link to the article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/corn-based-ethanols-flawed-concept/story.aspx?guid=%7BEC55D7AD%2D6E1C%2D4AD8%2D912F%2DA2A0BD4D4299%7D

Vestas Web Site

Vestas has a great web site with a lot of interesting information (Vestas is the largest manufacturer of wind turbines in the world). I have added a link to their site. I recently watched a TV series online that Vestas has linked on their site. It details the history of Vestas. The program has english subtitles, since it was produced in Denmark. The series is worth watching if you are interested in wind power.

Response to Jonah Goldberg Column

Jonah Goldberg has a column out today in the Seattle Times which can be read at the following link: http://author.nationalreview.com/latest/?q=MjE5NQ==

I think it is a very misleading commentary, and here is my response:

Dear Mr. Goldberg,

I would like to point out to you that your commentary is not factually correct on two very important points:

You state “there are no solutions in the realm of the politically possible”. I would submit that the United States can dramatically increase its use of wind power to generate electricity. Because wind power is widely distributed across the United States, and is strongest in the middle portion of the country, there is a broad base of support for wind power. There are some NIMBY areas where wind power will not catch on, but this is the exception, not the rule. Furthermore, wind power is cost competitive with coal-based power plants.
Secondly, plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles, better diesels, and other advances in automobile fuel efficiency are capable of dramatically reducing the amount of fossil fuels burned for transportation. These technologies may raise the purchase price of the vehicle, but they are offset by lower operating economics. Therefore your question “why throw trillions of dollars into ‘remedies’ that even their proponents concede won’t solve the problem?” is extremely misleading.

You may be aware of the fact that many environmental organizations do not support increasing the use of ethanol. Ethanol has been promoted by the Bush administration, however, if you take a look at the stock prices of ethanol companies, you will see that the ethanol bubble has already burst. Midwest farmers and landowners would be far better off focusing on wind power and crops for biodiesel. While companies such as ADM may initially suffer as this reality takes hold, other large corporations such as GE will benefit from increasing our reliance on wind power. Therefore I would submit that there is a politically feasible solution to our reliance on fossil fuels.

Sincerely,
Keith Harrell
Snohomish, WA

A Tale of Two Speakers – Peak Oil and The API

This week on Wednesday and Thursday night I had the opportunity to hear from opposite sides of the aisle regarding the state of the oil and gas industry and our energy future. Wednesday night I listened to a speaker on Peak Oil, while Thursday I heard the president of the American Petroleum Institute (API) speak. I found both speakers interesting, but lacking, because both failed to present a broader view than their particular area of interest.

So, are we running out of oil or not? Is that the question we should even be asking? The key message that keeps running through my mind is the saying from the Clinton campaign of the ‘90’s – “It’s the economy, stupid”. What both speakers harped on (from different perspectives) was the critical role that energy plays in driving the economy. Everyone knows that China, India, and the rest of the developing world’s economies are growing rapidly, and that means they require more energy. However, here’s where I have a problem with the message that is being given by both these camps. Their message is essentially – “More carbon = more energy = more economic growth”. However, we know that is essentially incorrect, because renewable sources of energy don’t fit this equation. Also, generating energy from hydrocarbons more efficiently doesn’t fit the equation either.

Let’s rewrite the equation as “More available energy = more economic growth”. We can make more energy available to everyone by using it more efficiently. Furthermore, wind power is cost effective today – we should be putting up wind turbines as fast as we can in the United States if we really care about the strength of our economy. Rather than focus on the need to secure energy resources abroad, we should be building our domestic energy supply.

Interest groups that are against carbon limits or are clamoring for securing petroleum for domestic consumption on the basis that to do otherwise would imperil our economy are misleading the American public. It is vital that people understand that changing our energy policy can improve our lives, not ruin it, as so many would have us believe.

Book Review - Big Coal

I've just finished reading Big Coal - The Dirty Secret Behind America's Energy Future by Jeff Goodell. Wow, this is a sobering read. I definitely recommend it. I had been skeptical of the "Clean Coal" slogan before I read this book, but I am now firmly convinced that we should not build another coal-fired power plant in the United States unless it replaces an old plant. Goodell paints a grim picture of the costs of our dependency on coal. He also reveals the ugly side of political influence, especially how the coal industry has cozied up to the Bush administration over the past six years.

Report on Renewables, Energy Savings

I haven't had a chance to read this yet, but it looks very worthwhile. There's a brief summary of the report at this link:

http://www.ases.org/climatechange/

Jobs Created or Lost Due to Carbon Caps?

The White House contends that jobs would be lost if we had to live with a carbon cap. Let's see - would you rather have a job building wind turbines or mining coal? Would you rather have a job updating the electric grid or drilling for oil? Would you rather have a job accelerating Solid State Lighting or no job (we already know how to make cheap, inefficient incandescent light bulbs). We have a more productive economy when we use less energy to produce things. That's what will result from carbon caps. We will have a better economy and more jobs, not less. Here's the article that prompted this entry:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/02/02/us.climate.reax.ap/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

Electric Excitement - Watch the Video

Check this out....very cool!

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6062890668995958197&q=Electric+Car+Drag+Racing&hl=en

Who Will Produce Electricity The Cheapest?

As we move towards more electric cars, the race will be on to see who can produce electricity at the lowest price, with the fewest environmental impacts. Here's a link to a related story.

http://news.com.com/Power+plants+in+the+basement+heat+up/2100-11392_3-6154894.html

Seattle Times Article on Pollution Effects

Here's a link to a story that offers another argument in favor of EVs powered by wind and other renewable energy sources.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003550558_airpollution01m.html

NY Times Article on Bush Energy Proposal

Not much to say about this....it's too depressing. However, we can do a lot better than this. Let's try!

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/weekinreview/28basic.html?ex=1327640400&en=ac056d2f03651734&ei=5089&partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss

Book Review - The Age of Oil

I’ve recently read The Age of Oil – The Mythology, History, and Future of the World’s Most Controversial Resource by Leonardo Maugeri. The author is a Vice President of Eni, the sixth-largest publicly listed oil company in the world (according to the book jacket). The book is very well written and researched, and offers some interesting insights from an insider’s perspective.

Here are my takeaways from the book:
The world is not running out of oil any time soon. Reserves keep growing over time. Especially compelling is how little drilling has been done in the Middle East, especially compared to the United States.
Oil is subject to the laws of supply and demand, and if oil prices get high, the oil producers start producing more. This eventually leads to over-production and a lessening of demand, which ultimately produces a glut of oil. Prices come down, demand increases, and the whole cycle starts over again.
Mr. Maugeri has one fatal logic flaw in his book, and that is his belief that there is no near-term solution to depending upon oil for transportation. This is where plug-in hybrids and EVs could throw a serious monkey wrench into a lot of oil executives' plans.

There’s a lot more, but these are the most relevant points for this discussion. Personally, I believe that it is irrelevant whether the world is running out of oil. The fact is that the United States has plenty of energy capacity to supply our transportation needs. The problem is how we transition our energy supply mix and vehicle mix to rely on our domestic energy supply. That’s for another post, though.

More Detail on Revolutions

Revolutions are defining moments in time. The Revolutionary War led to the creation of the United States. The Industrial Revolution changed society in ways that no one could have foreseen. Two new revolutions are almost upon us, and they will reshape the world again.

Global warming, peak oil, high gas prices, increasing federal deficits, declining household savings, a real-estate recession – it’s enough to make the average American want to skip to the funny pages when the paper arrives. Is there hope for the future? Yes, there is, but not many are talking about it, and when they do, it sounds as if it’s a long way off.

What the press, politicians, and public are missing is that the right mix of technology, politics, and economics has finally come along to wean us off of our dependence on fossil fuels within the next fifteen years. The huge market for personal electronic devices is driving the need for better energy storage devices, which will enable electric cars to overcome their previous range limits. Despite the recent movie Who Killed The Electric Car, the electric car is not dead, and in fact it is finally poised to dominate the automobile market. If you think this is only an evolutionary event, and not a revolutionary event, I urge you to give this some careful thought.

The other revolution that is near is the dramatic increase in renewable energy generation. The United States could generate three times today’s power requirements from wind energy alone. Wind power is cost competitive with fossil fuel power today. Critics contend that wind power is unreliable, but we get our imported oil from some of the least stable regions in the world. The United States government has $35 billion dollars worth of oil sitting in the ground to deal with oil “instability”. One has to think we can find an economical way to store wind energy for a calm day.

Ethanol and biodiesel are being touted as the answers to our dependence on foreign oil. However, if electrically powered autos are superior to combustion powered ones, who will be buying all this biofuel? Are politicians, farmers, and investors in the midst of another bubble?

How will United States foreign policy in the Middle East change when we no longer need oil from the region? Can we become an energy exporter instead of an energy importer?

How soon are these changes coming, and when do these questions have to be answered? A lot sooner than you think. Electric cars will be in mass production within the next five years. Within fifteen years, electric cars will completely dominate the automobile industry in the United States. Wind power has become a significant source of energy in Europe, and will grow in leaps and bounds in the United States for the foreseeable future.

Eliminating our dependency on imported oil and becoming an energy exporter will dramatically improve the financial fortunes of the U.S. Treasury and the American taxpayer. There is hope for the future, and the future is almost here.

We Can Generate All of Our Electricity From Wind

Here's another link for your consideration:

http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Wind_Energy_An_Untapped_Resource.pdf

I'll have more on this in a future post. I know that there are issues today with the electricity grid and its ability to handle too much power from wind. There is a lot of unharnessed potential, though.

Is Ethanol The Answer?

Here's a link to a paper that I highly recommend. I think the ethanol push that is on right now is very misguided.

http://www.teslamotors.com/display_data/21stCentElectricCar.pdf

Another $35 Billion Hole in The Ground?

So President Bush wants to double the size of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Using some rough calculations, we already have about $35 billion worth of oil (700 million barrels at $50 a barrel) sitting in the ground. Why in the world would we add that again?

The problem with federal government policy on oil consumption is that it is based on a twentieth century view of the world. We have the technology to dramatically improve fuel mileage with hybrids, and a much more modest investment than $35 billion would surely lead to a nation of electric vehicles capable of the range that consumers desire. Electric vehicles already are capable of performance that exceeds combustion-powered vehicles, but range and cost are the barriers to mass production. We aren’t far away from electric vehicles reaching a tipping point. If you don’t believe me, check out the Tesla Roadster – 0 to 60 in 4.2 seconds!
We have the capability to produce all of the electricity required for a nation of electric vehicles from a small fraction of the wind power that is available in the United States. For those that are concerned about the reliability of wind power, what would you rather have – a $35 billion hole in the ground, or a modest investment in energy storage for when the wind doesn’t blow. Unfortunately, the only wind blowing right now is an ill wind; that of mistaken policies rooted in the past.