Not much to say about this....it's too depressing. However, we can do a lot better than this. Let's try!
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/weekinreview/28basic.html?ex=1327640400&en=ac056d2f03651734&ei=5089&partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss
Saturday, January 27, 2007
Book Review - The Age of Oil
I’ve recently read The Age of Oil – The Mythology, History, and Future of the World’s Most Controversial Resource by Leonardo Maugeri. The author is a Vice President of Eni, the sixth-largest publicly listed oil company in the world (according to the book jacket). The book is very well written and researched, and offers some interesting insights from an insider’s perspective.
Here are my takeaways from the book:
The world is not running out of oil any time soon. Reserves keep growing over time. Especially compelling is how little drilling has been done in the Middle East, especially compared to the United States.
Oil is subject to the laws of supply and demand, and if oil prices get high, the oil producers start producing more. This eventually leads to over-production and a lessening of demand, which ultimately produces a glut of oil. Prices come down, demand increases, and the whole cycle starts over again.
Mr. Maugeri has one fatal logic flaw in his book, and that is his belief that there is no near-term solution to depending upon oil for transportation. This is where plug-in hybrids and EVs could throw a serious monkey wrench into a lot of oil executives' plans.
There’s a lot more, but these are the most relevant points for this discussion. Personally, I believe that it is irrelevant whether the world is running out of oil. The fact is that the United States has plenty of energy capacity to supply our transportation needs. The problem is how we transition our energy supply mix and vehicle mix to rely on our domestic energy supply. That’s for another post, though.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
More Detail on Revolutions
Revolutions are defining moments in time. The Revolutionary War led to the creation of the United States. The Industrial Revolution changed society in ways that no one could have foreseen. Two new revolutions are almost upon us, and they will reshape the world again.
Global warming, peak oil, high gas prices, increasing federal deficits, declining household savings, a real-estate recession – it’s enough to make the average American want to skip to the funny pages when the paper arrives. Is there hope for the future? Yes, there is, but not many are talking about it, and when they do, it sounds as if it’s a long way off.
What the press, politicians, and public are missing is that the right mix of technology, politics, and economics has finally come along to wean us off of our dependence on fossil fuels within the next fifteen years. The huge market for personal electronic devices is driving the need for better energy storage devices, which will enable electric cars to overcome their previous range limits. Despite the recent movie Who Killed The Electric Car, the electric car is not dead, and in fact it is finally poised to dominate the automobile market. If you think this is only an evolutionary event, and not a revolutionary event, I urge you to give this some careful thought.
The other revolution that is near is the dramatic increase in renewable energy generation. The United States could generate three times today’s power requirements from wind energy alone. Wind power is cost competitive with fossil fuel power today. Critics contend that wind power is unreliable, but we get our imported oil from some of the least stable regions in the world. The United States government has $35 billion dollars worth of oil sitting in the ground to deal with oil “instability”. One has to think we can find an economical way to store wind energy for a calm day.
Ethanol and biodiesel are being touted as the answers to our dependence on foreign oil. However, if electrically powered autos are superior to combustion powered ones, who will be buying all this biofuel? Are politicians, farmers, and investors in the midst of another bubble?
How will United States foreign policy in the Middle East change when we no longer need oil from the region? Can we become an energy exporter instead of an energy importer?
How soon are these changes coming, and when do these questions have to be answered? A lot sooner than you think. Electric cars will be in mass production within the next five years. Within fifteen years, electric cars will completely dominate the automobile industry in the United States. Wind power has become a significant source of energy in Europe, and will grow in leaps and bounds in the United States for the foreseeable future.
Eliminating our dependency on imported oil and becoming an energy exporter will dramatically improve the financial fortunes of the U.S. Treasury and the American taxpayer. There is hope for the future, and the future is almost here.
Global warming, peak oil, high gas prices, increasing federal deficits, declining household savings, a real-estate recession – it’s enough to make the average American want to skip to the funny pages when the paper arrives. Is there hope for the future? Yes, there is, but not many are talking about it, and when they do, it sounds as if it’s a long way off.
What the press, politicians, and public are missing is that the right mix of technology, politics, and economics has finally come along to wean us off of our dependence on fossil fuels within the next fifteen years. The huge market for personal electronic devices is driving the need for better energy storage devices, which will enable electric cars to overcome their previous range limits. Despite the recent movie Who Killed The Electric Car, the electric car is not dead, and in fact it is finally poised to dominate the automobile market. If you think this is only an evolutionary event, and not a revolutionary event, I urge you to give this some careful thought.
The other revolution that is near is the dramatic increase in renewable energy generation. The United States could generate three times today’s power requirements from wind energy alone. Wind power is cost competitive with fossil fuel power today. Critics contend that wind power is unreliable, but we get our imported oil from some of the least stable regions in the world. The United States government has $35 billion dollars worth of oil sitting in the ground to deal with oil “instability”. One has to think we can find an economical way to store wind energy for a calm day.
Ethanol and biodiesel are being touted as the answers to our dependence on foreign oil. However, if electrically powered autos are superior to combustion powered ones, who will be buying all this biofuel? Are politicians, farmers, and investors in the midst of another bubble?
How will United States foreign policy in the Middle East change when we no longer need oil from the region? Can we become an energy exporter instead of an energy importer?
How soon are these changes coming, and when do these questions have to be answered? A lot sooner than you think. Electric cars will be in mass production within the next five years. Within fifteen years, electric cars will completely dominate the automobile industry in the United States. Wind power has become a significant source of energy in Europe, and will grow in leaps and bounds in the United States for the foreseeable future.
Eliminating our dependency on imported oil and becoming an energy exporter will dramatically improve the financial fortunes of the U.S. Treasury and the American taxpayer. There is hope for the future, and the future is almost here.
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
We Can Generate All of Our Electricity From Wind
Here's another link for your consideration:
http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Wind_Energy_An_Untapped_Resource.pdf
I'll have more on this in a future post. I know that there are issues today with the electricity grid and its ability to handle too much power from wind. There is a lot of unharnessed potential, though.
http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Wind_Energy_An_Untapped_Resource.pdf
I'll have more on this in a future post. I know that there are issues today with the electricity grid and its ability to handle too much power from wind. There is a lot of unharnessed potential, though.
Is Ethanol The Answer?
Here's a link to a paper that I highly recommend. I think the ethanol push that is on right now is very misguided.
http://www.teslamotors.com/display_data/21stCentElectricCar.pdf
http://www.teslamotors.com/display_data/21stCentElectricCar.pdf
Another $35 Billion Hole in The Ground?
So President Bush wants to double the size of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Using some rough calculations, we already have about $35 billion worth of oil (700 million barrels at $50 a barrel) sitting in the ground. Why in the world would we add that again?
The problem with federal government policy on oil consumption is that it is based on a twentieth century view of the world. We have the technology to dramatically improve fuel mileage with hybrids, and a much more modest investment than $35 billion would surely lead to a nation of electric vehicles capable of the range that consumers desire. Electric vehicles already are capable of performance that exceeds combustion-powered vehicles, but range and cost are the barriers to mass production. We aren’t far away from electric vehicles reaching a tipping point. If you don’t believe me, check out the Tesla Roadster – 0 to 60 in 4.2 seconds!
We have the capability to produce all of the electricity required for a nation of electric vehicles from a small fraction of the wind power that is available in the United States. For those that are concerned about the reliability of wind power, what would you rather have – a $35 billion hole in the ground, or a modest investment in energy storage for when the wind doesn’t blow. Unfortunately, the only wind blowing right now is an ill wind; that of mistaken policies rooted in the past.
The problem with federal government policy on oil consumption is that it is based on a twentieth century view of the world. We have the technology to dramatically improve fuel mileage with hybrids, and a much more modest investment than $35 billion would surely lead to a nation of electric vehicles capable of the range that consumers desire. Electric vehicles already are capable of performance that exceeds combustion-powered vehicles, but range and cost are the barriers to mass production. We aren’t far away from electric vehicles reaching a tipping point. If you don’t believe me, check out the Tesla Roadster – 0 to 60 in 4.2 seconds!
We have the capability to produce all of the electricity required for a nation of electric vehicles from a small fraction of the wind power that is available in the United States. For those that are concerned about the reliability of wind power, what would you rather have – a $35 billion hole in the ground, or a modest investment in energy storage for when the wind doesn’t blow. Unfortunately, the only wind blowing right now is an ill wind; that of mistaken policies rooted in the past.
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